Seventy-seven: what the Maldives learned between India and China

Dr. Aishath Rafiyya Chief Executive Officer · October 2026

Seventy-seven. That was the number of Indian military personnel in the Maldives when the new government counted them in November 2023: 24 for one helicopter, 25 for a Dornier aircraft, 26 for a second helicopter, and two for maintenance. The government before it had said 75.

For two years the country had argued about that number. A campaign called "India Out" said the true figure was far higher, and that our sovereignty was at risk. I disagreed, and said so publicly in February 2023, when I was deputy leader of a political party. So I should be plain about where I stood before I say what I think the three years since have taught us.

A small state between two large ones is safest when it deals with both in the open, and counts before it campaigns.

First, the numbers were small and the work was useful. By the new government's own account, the three aircraft had flown 661 medical evacuations, 220 surveillance operations and 100 search missions. By 10 May 2024 the uniformed crews had left, and 76 of them had been replaced by civilian staff of the company that built the helicopters. The aircraft stayed, because island communities need them.

Second, opening one door did not mean closing another. In January 2024 the President made a state visit to China. The two countries raised their relationship to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership and signed 20 agreements. On 1 January 2025 the free trade agreement with China came into force, giving 296 Maldivian fish products entry at zero tariff.

Third, the repair with India came quickly, and it was right. In October 2024 the President made a state visit to India. In 2025 India's Prime Minister was the guest at the sixtieth anniversary of our independence. In August this year the President said that closer ties with India would receive special priority, and the two countries are now discussing a free trade agreement of their own. A government that had campaigned on one position weighed the country's interest in office, and adjusted. That is what responsible government looks like, and it deserves credit.

The strongest case for the campaign was never about the number. It was about secrecy. Defence agreements had not been published, and people fill a silence with suspicion. That point was fair then and it is fair now: the terms on which the civilian crews serve have not been published either. A citizen who asks to see what has been signed in the country's name is not an enemy of any friend of the Maldives.

This is where prevention begins. Fear grows fastest where facts are withheld. Had the figure of 75 been set out in 2021 with the detail given to the figure of 77 in 2023, much of the quarrel might never have started, and a neighbour's goodwill would not have been spent on it. The cheapest security policy a small state has is to tell its own people the truth early.

So here is a test for any government in Malé, this one or the next. For every agreement signed with a larger power, can a citizen read what it commits us to, how many foreign personnel it brings, and when it ends? If the answer is yes, there will be little left for a slogan to feed on.

Dr. Aishath Rafiyya works on preventive peace: the geopolitics of small states, peace governance, hospitality as diplomacy, and technology and peace. The views expressed are her own.